Waiting for the feed…
One of the outcomes of “Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?”. Outcomes: Yes / No. Catalogue status: active.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The committee calendar is the whole trade. There are eleven session days before the recess and the bill is not on the docket — anything that slips past October has to survive a lame-duck floor fight.
Same read. I bought No at 22 and I am not touching it until the calendar changes.
The discharge petition is the tail risk everyone here keeps forgetting about.
Industry groups are spending real money on this and the Treasury buyback headline gave the whole sector cover. The current price feels two or three points too cheap even with calendar risk.
Watch the Senate companion. If it is not marked up by mid-September this market goes to 5% and the spread will not let you out cleanly.
Resolution language matters here: an amended bill that keeps the number still counts. That is a meaningfully wider path to Yes than people are pricing.
