Waiting for the feed…
One of the outcomes of “US recession by end of 2026?”. Outcomes: Yes / No. Catalogue status: active.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
The committee calendar is the whole trade. There are eleven session days before the recess and the bill is not on the docket — anything that slips past October has to survive a lame-duck floor fight.
Same read. I bought No at 22 and I am not touching it until the calendar changes.
The discharge petition is the tail risk everyone here keeps forgetting about.
Industry groups are spending real money on this and the Treasury buyback headline gave the whole sector cover. The current price feels two or three points too cheap even with calendar risk.
Watch the Senate companion. If it is not marked up by mid-September this market goes to 5% and the spread will not let you out cleanly.
Resolution language matters here: an amended bill that keeps the number still counts. That is a meaningfully wider path to Yes than people are pricing.
