Waiting for the feed…
One of the outcomes of “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?”. Outcomes: Up / Down. Catalogue status: resolved, resolved no.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, November 5, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, November 5, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
The committee calendar is the whole trade. There are eleven session days before the recess and the bill is not on the docket — anything that slips past October has to survive a lame-duck floor fight.
Same read. I bought No at 22 and I am not touching it until the calendar changes.
The discharge petition is the tail risk everyone here keeps forgetting about.
Industry groups are spending real money on this and the Treasury buyback headline gave the whole sector cover. The current price feels two or three points too cheap even with calendar risk.
Watch the Senate companion. If it is not marked up by mid-September this market goes to 5% and the spread will not let you out cleanly.
Resolution language matters here: an amended bill that keeps the number still counts. That is a meaningfully wider path to Yes than people are pricing.
