If no primary election is held because the relevant party or state authorities determine the nominee by a different method, this market resolves in favour of the winner of that method.
This market resolves according to the official result published by the relevant authority. Resolution is based on the overall winner, including any potential second round or run-off. If the event does not take place before the closing date, the market resolves to "Other".
The committee calendar is the whole trade. There are eleven session days before the recess and the bill is not on the docket — anything that slips past October has to survive a lame-duck floor fight.
Same read. I bought No at 22 and I am not touching it until the calendar changes.
The discharge petition is the tail risk everyone here keeps forgetting about.
Industry groups are spending real money on this and the Treasury buyback headline gave the whole sector cover. The current price feels two or three points too cheap even with calendar risk.
Watch the Senate companion. If it is not marked up by mid-September this market goes to 5% and the spread will not let you out cleanly.
Resolution language matters here: an amended bill that keeps the number still counts. That is a meaningfully wider path to Yes than people are pricing.