Waiting for the feed…
One of the outcomes of “Netanyahu out by...?”. Outcomes: Yes / No. Catalogue status: active.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The committee calendar is the whole trade. There are eleven session days before the recess and the bill is not on the docket — anything that slips past October has to survive a lame-duck floor fight.
Same read. I bought No at 22 and I am not touching it until the calendar changes.
The discharge petition is the tail risk everyone here keeps forgetting about.
Industry groups are spending real money on this and the Treasury buyback headline gave the whole sector cover. The current price feels two or three points too cheap even with calendar risk.
Watch the Senate companion. If it is not marked up by mid-September this market goes to 5% and the spread will not let you out cleanly.
Resolution language matters here: an amended bill that keeps the number still counts. That is a meaningfully wider path to Yes than people are pricing.
